Victoria's Demographic Trends: A Visual Analysis (2011-2023)

This visualisation explores how population changes due to births and deaths have manifested across Victoria's Local Government Areas (LGAs) from 2011 to 2023.
We will examine which areas are growing naturally, which are aging, and explore the potential reasons why through the data.

Where is the Population Growing or Declining?

The map below illustrates the 'natural increase' for each LGA. Use the slider to explore the data for a specific year. Hover over an area to see detailed numbers.


Data Sources:
Victorian Government. (2024). Vicmap Admin dataset series. accessed from DataVic.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). (2023). Births, Australia & Deaths, Australia.

Key Observations and Summaries

In 2023, a clear pattern emerges across Greater Melbourne. The metropolitan fringe areas, particularly in the fast-growing western and northern corridors, exhibit a high natural increase, likely linked to housing affordability.
In contrast, many established eastern suburbs are experiencing a natural decrease.
Comparing 2023 to a decade prior reveals a significant demographic shift across the state. Many regional areas that showed natural growth in 2013 have now shifted to a natural decrease, a trend particularly evident in the Mornington Peninsula.

What is the Overall trend for Victoria? (2011 to 2023)

The line chart visualise the trends of total number of births and total number of Deaths accross in Victoria, from 2011 to 2013.


Data Sources:
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). (2023). Births, Australia & Deaths, Australia.

Key Observations and Summaries

Victoria's births peaked around 2016 and have declined since, while deaths have consistently trended upwards. This rise in deaths accelerated sharply from 2020, a trend likely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic , before a slight drop in 2023.

Why Do These Differences Occur?

2023 scatter plot: Median age (x) vs. births (y) by LGA; dot size reflects socio-economic status via the 2021 Census IRSD—larger dots, where a higher score represents a higher advantage of socio-economic growth.

Data Sources:
Based on data from Public Health Information Development Unit (PHIDU). (2024). Social Health Atlases of Australia.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).(2023) Births, Australia.

Key Observations and Summaries

Overall, the chart shows a clear pattern: LGAs with lower median age have more births, aligning with the map’s high-growth “blue” areas as predominantly younger communities. Dot size adds nuance—LGAs with the most births (e.g., Casey, Hume) aren’t necessarily the most socio-economically advantaged, indicating that rapid birth-driven growth is concentrated in younger, developing outer-suburban corridors rather than the most affluent areas.

Where in Victoria has more births or deaths and why?

On the right, the Population Pyramid shows the underlying demographic structure of two contrasting areas: Casey(high-birth) vs Mornington Peninsula(high death).
On the left, explore the bar charts change by viewing the Top 10 LGAs for Births or Deaths in 2023.

Data Source: ABS (Births & Deaths, 2023).


Data Source: ABS (Population by Age, 2021 Census).

Key Observations and Summaries

The Top 10 chart shows that births are highest in outer growth areas like Casey, while deaths are highest in established coastal areas like the Mornington Peninsula.
The population pyramid explains why: Casey has a classic pyramid shape that is wider at the bottom, reflecting a young population structure, while Mornington Peninsula has a top-heavy, aging structure.
This means Victoria's population trends are simply a geographical map of its young and old communities.